Confidence levels about forecasting hotel demand tend to plummet once you’ve experienced a travel-stopping pandemic. But never let it be said that Hamilton County Tourism isn’t willing to try to forecast the coming year’s lodging industry economy. * 

Like any good economist, we must toss in a few caveats for good measure. They include: 

• We have dodged a recession so far, and while most financial forecasters think a recession would be light if we have one due to measures to keep inflation under control, this forecast assumes things will be pretty much the same as they are now economy-wise (barring any unforeseen events such as government shut-downs.) And it is a presidential election year in 2024.
• In addition to the overall economy, the thing we’re watching closely is increasing demand for short-term stays and the market’s response, which is to add more units available for rent. In other words, a lot of people are looking for alternatives to hotel stays. This demand is baked into this forecast only because the largest growth was between 2021-2023, and we see home stays stabilizing a bit, so hopefully this is now a “new normal.”

With those comments aside, here is our forecast for the entire county in 2024:

This will vary by hotel class, which we’ve noted in more extensive reports we’ve done.

Check out what we think will happen on the US31/Carmel/Westfield side of the county versus the I69/Fishers/Noblesville side of the county.

And please email me if you we’re way off base because you’re on the dance floor and we’re in the balcony. We’d love to have your insights.

*We feel pretty puffed-up as we think we may come very close to our countywide 2023 forecast, but it never pays to get arrogant!